Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 24, 2026

Today’s Austin real estate market update for Tuesday, February 24, 2026 shows a market that is active, but clearly operating below peak momentum. According to the latest Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing published by Team Price Real Estate, active residential listings stand at 13,431, which is up 11.9 percent compared to this time last year. While inventory remains well below the previous high of 18,146 reached in late June 2025, the year over year growth confirms that supply is still expanding faster than demand.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Tuesday, February 24, 2026.

Nearly half of all active listings, 48.3 percent, have had at least one price drop. That statistic alone tells you a great deal about the current Austin housing environment. Sellers are still entering the market, but pricing power has weakened. When almost one out of every two homes has reduced its price, that reflects competitive pressure and buyer sensitivity to affordability. This is not a panic market, but it is not a strong seller market either. It is a market that requires accurate pricing and strategic positioning from day one.

New listings from January through February total 6,864. That is down 12.3 percent year over year, yet still 11.6 percent above the long term historical average. In other words, listing activity is slower than last year but remains structurally elevated relative to the broader 25 year context. Meanwhile, cumulative pending listings over the same period total 5,773, down 12.4 percent year over year and 4.1 percent below average. Demand is present, but it is not absorbing new supply at historical strength.

The Activity Index currently sits at 23.6 percent, down from 25.3 percent last year. This places much of the resale market in what is defined as the softening phase. In this phase, sales slow and inventory builds gradually. New construction continues to outperform resale with a 29.01 percent Activity Index compared to 21.11 percent for resale homes. Builders are using incentives and rate buy downs to maintain momentum, while resale sellers are more exposed to direct price adjustments.

The new listing to pending ratio for the year stands at 0.72, compared to the 25 year average of 0.82. Historically, a ratio closer to or above 1.0 signals tight inventory and strong demand. At 0.72, more homes are coming to market than going under contract relative to long term norms. Year to date, there are 1,091 more new listings than pendings. This supply imbalance helps explain why pricing pressure persists in today’s Austin real estate forecast.

Months of inventory has increased to 4.76 months, up 13.6 percent from 4.19 months one year ago. While this is not extreme, it firmly places the broader Austin housing market in a buyer advantage range in many submarkets. Several cities are seeing meaningful expansion in months of inventory over both one and two year comparisons. Higher inventory levels create more options for buyers and require stronger negotiation skills from sellers and their agents.

Sales volume also reflects moderation. There were 1,862 homes sold in February. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,547, down 8.5 percent year over year but still 6.8 percent above the long term average. That means transaction volume remains structurally healthier than pre pandemic norms, but it is clearly below the surge years of 2020 and 2021.

When adjusted for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents stands at 133, which is 10.4 percent below last year and 23.7 percent below historical average. Per 1,000 Realtors, cumulative sold transactions total 201, down 2.3 percent year over year and 21 percent below average. This reinforces that the competitive environment for agents remains intense. There are fewer transactions per agent than normal, and efficiency matters more than ever.

Pricing trends continue to reflect the correction that began after the May 2022 peak. The average sold price in February is $552,079. The median sold price is $425,000. From the May 2022 median peak of $550,000 to today’s $425,000, that represents a 22.73 percent decline, or roughly $125,000 off the top. From the peak average price of $681,939 to today’s $552,079, that is a 19.04 percent drop, or approximately $130,000 lower. These numbers define the current Austin housing cycle.

Year over year performance varies by price tier. The bottom 25th percentile of homes is down 3.59 percent in price and down 6.17 percent in price per square foot. Meanwhile, the top 25th percentile is up 4.15 percent in price, though price per square foot is slightly negative. This divergence suggests that higher end inventory is holding value better in certain pockets, while entry level and mid tier homes remain more sensitive to affordability constraints.

City level appreciation shows that only 6 cities are up year over year in median sold price, while 24 are down. Additionally, the Home Value Index indicates that 73.3 percent of cities are still considered overvalued relative to historical fundamentals, 23.3 percent are fairly valued, and 6.7 percent are undervalued. This distribution supports the broader Austin real estate forecast that further normalization may still be required in many submarkets.

The absorption rate, also known as the sold to active ratio, is 14.96 percent compared to a historical average of 31.54 percent. That is less than half of normal absorption. When fewer than 15 percent of active listings sell in a given month, turnover slows and supply accumulates. This aligns with the Market Flow Score of 3.23, well below the historical average of 6.58. The Market Flow Score blends multiple turnover metrics into a single index, and today’s reading confirms a supply heavy, slower moving environment.

Looking forward, the long term projection model uses a 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.554 percent. If we assume the current median price of $425,000 represents a cyclical bottom, it would take approximately 71 months, or until December 2031, to return to the prior median peak near $550,631 under normal appreciation conditions. This projection does not assume rapid recovery. It assumes historical normalization. That is an important distinction for anyone analyzing the Austin housing forecast.

For buyers, this Austin market update highlights opportunity. Inventory is higher, nearly half of sellers have reduced price, and absorption remains below average. For sellers, pricing discipline is critical. Homes that are priced correctly are still selling, but those that chase the market are sitting and reducing. For investors, yield and long term fundamentals matter more than short term appreciation. For agents, the data reinforces that skill, speed, and accurate market interpretation separate average results from strong results in this environment.

Austin real estate is not collapsing, but it is correcting and stabilizing. The data shows a market working through excess supply while maintaining structural transaction activity above long term averages. That combination creates a slower, more balanced housing environment rather than a frozen one. The Austin real estate forecast continues to point toward gradual normalization rather than rapid rebound.

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FAQ Section

Is the Austin housing market still declining in 2026?

The Austin housing market remains below its 2022 peak, with the median sold price down 22.73 percent from May 2022. However, the pace of decline has moderated compared to earlier phases of the correction. Inventory is elevated and absorption is below average, which keeps pressure on pricing. The Austin real estate forecast suggests stabilization may occur before sustained appreciation resumes.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Austin?

From a supply perspective, buyers currently have more leverage than during the peak years. With 13,431 active listings and 48.3 percent of homes showing price reductions, negotiation power has improved. Months of inventory at 4.76 indicates a more balanced to buyer favorable environment in many areas. For long term buyers who plan to hold, current pricing levels may offer improved entry points compared to 2022.

How does today’s inventory compare to last year?

Active listings are up 11.9 percent year over year. Months of inventory has increased from 4.19 to 4.76. This growth in supply has outpaced demand growth, which is why the Activity Index has declined to 23.6 percent. In the context of Austin housing cycles, this represents a continued normalization phase rather than a sudden surge.

What is happening with Austin home prices across different price ranges?

The lower price tier is experiencing more downward pressure, with the bottom 25th percentile down 3.59 percent year over year. Higher priced homes in the top 25th percentile are slightly up in price, though price per square foot is flat to slightly negative. This indicates that affordability constraints are weighing more heavily on entry level buyers. The Austin real estate market is segmenting rather than moving uniformly.

How long could it take for Austin home prices to return to peak levels?

Using a 25 year compound annual appreciation rate of 4.554 percent, and assuming current prices represent a bottom, it could take approximately 71 months to return to the prior median peak. That would place recovery around late 2031 under normal appreciation assumptions. This projection reflects steady growth, not rapid acceleration. The Austin housing forecast therefore favors patience and long term planning over short term speculation.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.